AI revolutionizes military wargaming: Lessons in speed, scope, and strategic foresight

The war in Ukraine has served as a stark illustration of the rapid evolution of modern conflicts. The jarring shift from trench warfare to drone warfare and the dynamic use of real-time intelligence underscore a critical reality: traditional warfare—and strategic wargaming simulations—are undergoing radical transformations.

For wargaming experts, several factors are driving that transformation: artificial intelligence (AI), the availability of real-time situational data, and open data architectures that allow military strategists to overlay multiple layers of information, like virtual Lego blocks, to test out various simulations and enable faster decisions.

AI and modern, open IT architecture in particular are changing the nature of wargaming simulations, according to a panel of wargaming specialists that included Lt. Col. Scotty Black of the U.S. Marine Corps, Mark (Ernie) Gombo, a former USMC planner now with Microsoft, and Stephen Gordon of Red Hat.

The panel, hosted by Scoop News Group and sponsored by Red Hat, delved into how AI and the ability to layer situational intelligence on top of digital landscapes are dramatically reshaping the nature of wargaming simulations. Those changes offer a glimpse of new ways for leaders across the federal government to grapple with complex, data-rich challenges.

From theory to reality: Wargaming’s wake-up call

Wargaming has been an indispensable but relatively static tool for military planners to test strategies and anticipate threats for decades. Mark Gombo, Director of Federal Growth Team at Microsoft and a former Marine, described traditional wargaming exercises as “very manual, intensive and laborious. Everybody joined in the same room. We stood around a common map chip…you had the participants, the observers, the white cells, note takers.” The process was slow, insights were hard-won, and the scope was often limited by human capacity and available data.

The Ukraine conflict threw these limitations into sharp relief. Lt. Col. Scotty Black, USMC AI Modeling and Simulation Technology Lead, pointed out that pre-conflict expectations, even among experts, often predicted a swift, conventional engagement. “It wasn’t the conflict we thought it was going to be,” he noted, “because we were not able to really model or simulate some of the other factors that played a role in it,” such as social media intelligence “or the impact that small, cheap drones had on the conflict.” This gap highlighted the urgent need for wargaming to incorporate a far wider, more dynamic range of inputs.

Enter AI and open architecture. These technologies enable the military to move beyond “stovepipe simulation engines” and “interoperability issues,” as Lt. Col. Black identified them.

Tech-driven transformation: AI and open systems unleashed

Stephen Gordon, Director of Strategic Accounts for DoD Missile and Space at Red Hat, and a Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, emphasized the power of open architecture in integrating diverse datasets. He likened it to “building with Lego blocks,” where new systems and data sources—from space assets to cyber intelligence and “transparent domains” like information operations—can be seamlessly added or removed. This flexibility is crucial for creating comprehensive simulations that reflect the multi-domain nature of modern geopolitical landscapes. “Interoperability is almost the end state,” Gordon stated, allowing for the fusion of previously siloed data.

Mark Gombo elaborated on how commercially available IT and AI solutions make these simulations more realistic and insightful. He described modern wargames ingesting “real-world streaming data from social media, from distributed sensors throughout the globe,” processing petabytes of data using “the elasticity of hyperscale cloud” and advanced GPUs. This allows for “real-time analysis on what’s going on,” collapsing the timeframe for insights from weeks or months to near-instantaneous feedback. This speed enables virtual participation from anywhere, reducing logistical burdens and broadening collaborative possibilities.

The integration of AI is not merely about processing more data faster; it’s about generating novel insights and challenging human biases, says. Lt. Col. Black. He envisions AI as a tool to “increase the speed, scale, and scope of war games.” It allows military strategists to develop more varied scenarios, run simulations more efficiently, and, crucially, “inform human planners, human decision-makers on alternative realities that maybe you should consider.” This man-machine teaming can help strategists break free from conventional thinking and explore a broader range of possibilities. The goal, Black emphasized, is to gain unforeseen understanding: “We’re looking for insights that we wouldn’t have had beforehand.”

Lt. Col Black says this ability to rapidly iterate and test multiple scenarios across diverse domains, informed by real-time data and AI-driven analysis, is transformative. It allows military leaders to move from static, episodic games to what he described as a “persistent, dynamic environment” that can be queried and revisited continuously, informing readiness at all levels.

The path forward: Applying wargaming’s AI lessons

The panelists offered key advice for defense and government leaders. Gordon suggested starting small with AI, learning from adjacent industries like commercial gaming or even the movie industry, which uses AI to visualize complex scenarios.

Gombo stressed the importance of robust collaboration between government, industry, and academia and the need to “educate and challenge industry partners to provide the capabilities and outputs required.” He also underscored the imperative for “responsible AI” to avoid strategic overmatch in great power competition. Lt. Col. Black highlighted that such advancements depend on continuous collaboration to meet the pacing threat.

While the focus was on military simulations, the implications for the broader federal government are profound. Agencies dealing with disaster response, economic forecasting, cybersecurity threats, or public health crises all face similarly complex, multi-faceted, data-intensive challenges. The ability to rapidly ingest diverse data streams, model complex systems, simulate potential outcomes, and iterate on strategies using AI-powered tools could revolutionize decision-making and preparedness across government.

The panelists stressed that the lessons from the evolving world of wargaming—the need for interoperable data, open architectures, AI-driven insights, and collaborative innovation—are universally applicable for any organization striving to navigate an increasingly unpredictable world.  

Learn more about how Red Hat helps agencies leverage open-source technologies and services to improve decision making.

This video panel discussion was produced by Scoop News Group for FedScoop and DefenseScoop and underwritten by Red Hat.